Why Chain Disappearance isn't good against Fairy Agent?

Today we are going to look at one of the concepts I have been thinking about for the past few weeks. That is, whether Chain Disappearance is good as a side-decking material against Fairy Agent. To do so, we will use a conceptual model, where assumptions are made, to investigate the Math behind it.

Based on observation, quite a number of players are siding in Chain Disappearance against the Fairy Agent Matchup as an answer to the special summoning of Mystical Shine Ball. This coupled with the fact that Fairy Agent is one of the most popular decks around for the time being, also meant that more players are playing Chain Disappearance in their side-deck.

So, what is it in Mystical Shine Ball that is so fearful that there is a need to side-deck against it? The vanilla monster allows one of the most card-gaining plays in this Metagame. To unlock it, it has to be used in conjunction with Agent of Creation – Venus. At the cost of 500 life points, a player may utilise the effects of Venus to special summon one Mystical Shine Ball from their hand or deck. Simply put, you can reduce your deck count and increase resources on the field at the same time using just one card. The release of Xyz monsters, specifically Gachi Gachi Gantetsu, further improved the utility of the card. It is a common sight to see an Agent of Creation – Venus, with an attack of 2000, surviving long periods of the game to gain insane resource lead on opponent.

The probability of drawing Agent of Creation – Venus in an opening hand of 6 is 39.43%. We will assume that the rational player will try to special summon Mystical Shine Ball using it at every first opportunity available to reduce/eliminate the chance of drawing into the vanilla monster, and to increase the chance of drawing other cards (by reducing total deck count). The scenario of obtaining it via Pot of Duality is ignored because the latter’s side effect will prevent Venus from using its effect.

 Let A be Opponent drawing Agent of Creation - Venus in their opening hand

P(A) = 0.3943

The usual number of Chain Disappearance being included in the Side Deck of players varies between 1 and 2. For the purpose of illustration, it would be assumed at 2.

Let B be myself drawing Chain Disappearance in my opening hand

P(B) = 0.2807

This meant that if I include 2 copies of chain disappearance in my deck, I will have a 28.07% chance of drawing it in my opening hand. Obtaining the card via Pot of Duality is ignored and will be explained somewhere later in this post.

By combining the 2 probabilities above, we can obtain the conditional probability of activating Chain Disappearance on opponent’s first turn (assuming you go first).

P(A|B) = P(A) * P(B) = 0.1107 (A & B are statiscally independent)

This meant that by including 2 copies of Chain Disappearance, and going first in the game, there is an 11.07% chance of activating it on Mystical Shine Ball on opponent’s inaugural turn. To change a way to look at this, it means that for every 10 games where you go first, on average there would be one game where you get to activate Chain Disappearance on Mystical Shine Ball on opponent’s opening turn. At first glance, it would seem to be a decent ratio, but once the assumptions are lifted, it would be a different case.

Assumption Investigation 1: Chain Disappearance obtained by Pot of Duality

Earlier, we ignored the chance of obtaining Chain Disappearance by Pot of Duality. It is without a doubt that the chance of drawing into it would be greater should we include them. However, being a rational player, if your opponent were to see that you pick Chain Disappearance from your Pot of Duality then the most rational move in most case would be to hold the specifically affected play until they can clear your trap. This means that even if opponent has Venus in their hand, they would hold it until a later turn. The chance of activating Chain Disappearance on Mystical Shine Ball on opponent’s first turn is then reduced.

Assumption Investigation 2: Chain Disappearance not cleared by Mystical Space Typhoon or other effects

Throughout the investigation, it was implicitly assumed that Chain Disappearance will not be removed by effects before its activation. Logically, if it exist the chance that it would be removed, then the probability of it being activated on the first turn will also be lower.

Assumption Investigation 3:  Opponent makes Venus play immediately once available

In the investigation held, it was assumed that opponent would play their Venus once there was an opportunity to do so. There exists the possibility that they might hold back this play despite having Agent of Creation – Venus in hand. One might think that there is no big deal about this. However, one of the most important concept in this game Is to not draw dead, or to draw resources which would not be helpful to improve the situation. Having a Chain Disappearance setup but not being able to utilise it meant that you are having “artificial” resources no better than a bluff. Looking from opponent’s perspective, even if they summon Venus, they may not declare to use its effect and still have a monster with a reasonable attack of 1600 on their field. They may also choose to banish it to special summon Master Hyperion. In short, Chain Disappearance being a dead card is more likely than Agent of Creation – Venus being a dead card.

Assumption Investigation 4: Why first turn?

As a side deck material, you want to see it being played at the first opportunity at the scenario which it was intended for. Once you miss this opportunity, the likelihood of it being a dead draw increases with every turn passed. The first opportunity of special summoning Mystical Shine Ball with Agent of Creation – Venus is on the first turn, hence the focus on it.

With every investigation, there would be counter arguments to it

Counter Argument 1: I can set it as a bluff until my opponent falls for it

This is the typical argument for side deck cards, which commonly works, but not in this case. As mentioned previously, the copy of Agent of Creation – Venus in opponent’s hand can still be utilised for other plays while your copy of Chain Disappearance remains passive on your field. If you are looking for a bluff, then probably Dust Tornado, or most other spell or traps with less stringent activation requirements would be better at serving the function.

Counter Argument 2: If my opponent refuse to special summon Mystical Shine Ball and draws into it later, the purpose is served

To simply answer this, Mystical Shine Ball may still be used to activate Herald of Orange Light’s effect, preserving other Fairy monster with better stats.

Counter Argument 3: I can use it on Agent of Mystery – Earth as well

To answer this, we have to look at various scenarios.

The first would be Agent of Mystery – Earth being played prior to any copies of Mystery Shine Ball being summoned. In this scenario, you would suffer a net loss of 1 resource as Chain Disappearance is used on Agent of Mystery – Earth, which nets another copy of Agent, typically Agent of Creation – Venus. In addition, you would have served to help opponent reduce his deck count by 2, further improving his draw chances. The most card advantageous play of Venus – Shine Ball would follow on the next turn, making the move weird to carry out. For the rest which feels that Master Hyperion is going to have fewer Agents to banish for its summoning condition, do note that Agent of Creation – Venus is already in opponent’s hand.

The second scenario would be playing it on Agent of Mystery – Earth after Mystical Shine Ball is summoned previously. In this case, you are probably activating the trap at the last opportunity available, where opponent is carrying out what I call a Resource Risk Free Move (RRFM). RRFM refers to a move which does not involve much resources loss should it fail, for e.g. summoning a Green Gadget when there are still copies of Red Gadget in deck. In this scenario, opponent is probably trying to filter away the remaining copies of Agent of Creation – Venus in hope of drawing into their bigger monsters. By removing all possible remaining copies of Agent of Mystery – Earth, you are probably helping you opponent to achieve what they are aiming to.

Conclusion

To conclude, Chain Disappearance is a mathematical unwise card to side against Fairy Agents due to its stringent activation requirements. The lack of consistency, as well as versatility, meant that the card would be inefficient against pure Fairy Agents. However, this is not the case as with T.G. Agents. The two decks, while similar, run differently from one another.

Update (09/21): Duelist Codex has provided invaluable discussion towards this post. Please read the comments on top of the article for a more complete understanding of the post.